Saturday, December 31, 2011

UC3M collaborates in the largest experiment in real time on cooperation in society

UC3M collaborates in the largest experiment in real time on cooperation in society [ Back to EurekAlert! ] Public release date: 30-Dec-2011
[ | E-mail | Share Share ]

Contact: Ana Herrera
oic@uc3m.es
Carlos III University of Madrid

This release is available in Spanish.

A total of 1,303 high school students in Aragon have participated in an online scientific-social experiment to determine the problems and conflicts arising from cooperation in present day society.

This experiment, organized by the Instituto Biocomputacin y Fsica de Sistemas Complejos (The Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems) (BIFI) at the Universidad de Zaragoza, together with the Fundacin Ibercivis and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), is the largest one of its kind carried out in real time in this field until now.

The study starts with the hypothesis that the structure of the population determines the level of cooperation among its individuals. This experiment made it possible to carry out interaction between students from 42 secondary schools, based on the prototype of social conflict known as "The Prisoner's Dilemma". To be precise, this game shows that the greatest benefit for persons who interact is produced when both sides collaborate; however, if one person collaborates and the other does not, the latter obtains more benefits. This, on occasion, triggers the possibility of taking advantage of the collaboration of others. But if this tendency grows, in the end, nobody cooperates and nobody obtains benefits.

Experiment in real time

The significance of this experiment is that it is carried out in real time, in the space of three hours, among students from secondary schools throughout Aragon. In addition, this experiment featured a high degree of participation, with the largest existing results to date having been gathered by groups at Harvard University (120 participants) and UC3M (169 participants). In the latter case, the conclusion reached by the researchers from this Madrid university is that a situation where the majority of people collaborate is never attained. This is due to the fact that a significant portion of people never cooperate or do so depending on the decision of their neighbors, or their moods at the time, according to this experimental study. Another of the notable conclusions obtained is that there are different types of people: people who always try to help their neighbors (around 5 percent), some that never do so (35 percent) and others who cooperate according to their mood or depending on what their neighbors did previously (60 percent).

The presentation and live monitoring this experiment took place this past December 20 in the Aragon capital city at the La Espacio Zaragoza Activa, which became a monitoring and real time visualization room for the results of this experiment. During this event, in which Francisco Marcelln, Head of the UC3M Mathematics Department was present, the following also participated: Miguel ngel Garca, Head of Research and Innovation for the Aragon Government; Ricardo Cavero, Head of Science and Technology for the Zaragoza Municipal Government; Maria Luisa Borao, Director of the Ibercaja Cultural Centers in Zaragoza; Alfonso Tarancn, Director of BIFI and Yamir Moreno, BIFI Scientific Secretary and experiment coordinator, together with the UC3M Full Professors of Mathematics, Jos A. Cuesta and Anxo Snchez, both from the Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos (GISC) (Interdisciplinary Group of Complex Systems). Professor Moreno presented the preliminary conclusions the following day.

More cooperation among girls

Thanks to the preliminary results of this study initial analysis has been able to prove that in certain parameters there are differences regarding the level of cooperation. For example, in relation to the sex of the participants, girls cooperated 10 percent more than did boys. A clear difference was also observed according to the type of secondary school program studied, with students of humanities and social sciences obtaining a level of cooperation 4 percent higher than those studying scientific technology. However, there were no important differences regarding the number of family members of the students (if they were only children or had more siblings) nor were there differences according to their geographical origins (if they were from rural or urban areas). In global terms, a 35 percent rate of cooperation was observed in the participants, which means that approximately one out of three students cooperated.

These results seem to confirm, according to the researchers, that the structure of the interaction network influences in a medium level of cooperation. That is, different levels of cooperation in the regular network have been observed in which all the users are connected with the same number of classmates/neighbors, and the heterogeneous, the so-called "scale-free" one, in which some persons are very connected (with many neighbors) and others very little. The researchers in charge of the experiment continue to extract data for more detailed analysis and with that will be able to obtain more results leading to in scientific journals publications.

Two types of tests

The experiment mainly consisted of two types of tests, each one made up of a different network. The first was a regular network, in which all the users were connected with the same number of schoolmates/neighbors. The second test used a heterogeneous network, the so-called "scale-free" types, in which some persons are very connected, that is, with many neighbors and others with very few. In both cases, the different behavior of the participants is compared when they always interact with the same neighbors, comparing that to what they do when after each interaction the structure of the population changes in a random way, and as such, with different neighbors.

If the hypothesis that the structure of the population determines the level of cooperation is true, different behavior will be observed when the neighbors are the same and when they change, and what is more, different levels of cooperation in the regular and heterogeneous network will be observed. If this is so, the hypothesis will be confirmed. On the contrary, the door will be left open to rule out the hypothesis, making it then be necessary to search for new alternatives to understand the main issue which is "the urgency of the cooperation".

This study has involved the participation of the following schools and institutes in Aragn. In the capital city of Zaragoza the following institutes participated: Goya, Pedro de Luna, Miralbueno, Ramn Pignatelli, Miguel Servet, Jernimo Zurita, Miguel Cataln, Jos Manuel Blecua, Andaln, Pablo Gargallo, Avempace, Francisco Grande Covin, Fundacin San Valero, Luis Buuel, Ramn y Cajal, Pablo Serrano and Azucarera, and the schools: Liceo Europa, Teresiano del Pilar, Sansuea, O.D Santo Domingo de Silos, Sagrado Corazn, Escuelas Pas, The British Institute of Aragon, San Alberto Magno, El Pilar Maristas and La Salle Gran Va. In other towns in the province the following institutes participated: Pirmide and Sierra de Guara in Huesca, Conde de Aranda in Alagn, Bajo Cinca in Fraga, Salvador Victoria in Monreal del Campo, Matarraa in Valderrobres, Zaurn in Ateca, Biello Aragn in Sabinigo, Gallicum in Zuera, Ro Arba in Tauste, Rodanas in pila, ngel Sanz Briz in Casetas, Valle de Jilocain Calamocha and Benjamn Jarns in Fuentes de Ebro and the school Santa Rosa-Altoaragn in Huesca.

The Aragon Government program Ciencia Viva also collaborated as the main organizer for all the participating public schools together with Hewlett Packard, Obra Social Ibercaja, the Zaragoza Municipal Government, El Corte Ingles Cultural Area and the Aragon Government as sponsors of the event.

###


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UC3M collaborates in the largest experiment in real time on cooperation in society [ Back to EurekAlert! ] Public release date: 30-Dec-2011
[ | E-mail | Share Share ]

Contact: Ana Herrera
oic@uc3m.es
Carlos III University of Madrid

This release is available in Spanish.

A total of 1,303 high school students in Aragon have participated in an online scientific-social experiment to determine the problems and conflicts arising from cooperation in present day society.

This experiment, organized by the Instituto Biocomputacin y Fsica de Sistemas Complejos (The Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems) (BIFI) at the Universidad de Zaragoza, together with the Fundacin Ibercivis and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), is the largest one of its kind carried out in real time in this field until now.

The study starts with the hypothesis that the structure of the population determines the level of cooperation among its individuals. This experiment made it possible to carry out interaction between students from 42 secondary schools, based on the prototype of social conflict known as "The Prisoner's Dilemma". To be precise, this game shows that the greatest benefit for persons who interact is produced when both sides collaborate; however, if one person collaborates and the other does not, the latter obtains more benefits. This, on occasion, triggers the possibility of taking advantage of the collaboration of others. But if this tendency grows, in the end, nobody cooperates and nobody obtains benefits.

Experiment in real time

The significance of this experiment is that it is carried out in real time, in the space of three hours, among students from secondary schools throughout Aragon. In addition, this experiment featured a high degree of participation, with the largest existing results to date having been gathered by groups at Harvard University (120 participants) and UC3M (169 participants). In the latter case, the conclusion reached by the researchers from this Madrid university is that a situation where the majority of people collaborate is never attained. This is due to the fact that a significant portion of people never cooperate or do so depending on the decision of their neighbors, or their moods at the time, according to this experimental study. Another of the notable conclusions obtained is that there are different types of people: people who always try to help their neighbors (around 5 percent), some that never do so (35 percent) and others who cooperate according to their mood or depending on what their neighbors did previously (60 percent).

The presentation and live monitoring this experiment took place this past December 20 in the Aragon capital city at the La Espacio Zaragoza Activa, which became a monitoring and real time visualization room for the results of this experiment. During this event, in which Francisco Marcelln, Head of the UC3M Mathematics Department was present, the following also participated: Miguel ngel Garca, Head of Research and Innovation for the Aragon Government; Ricardo Cavero, Head of Science and Technology for the Zaragoza Municipal Government; Maria Luisa Borao, Director of the Ibercaja Cultural Centers in Zaragoza; Alfonso Tarancn, Director of BIFI and Yamir Moreno, BIFI Scientific Secretary and experiment coordinator, together with the UC3M Full Professors of Mathematics, Jos A. Cuesta and Anxo Snchez, both from the Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos (GISC) (Interdisciplinary Group of Complex Systems). Professor Moreno presented the preliminary conclusions the following day.

More cooperation among girls

Thanks to the preliminary results of this study initial analysis has been able to prove that in certain parameters there are differences regarding the level of cooperation. For example, in relation to the sex of the participants, girls cooperated 10 percent more than did boys. A clear difference was also observed according to the type of secondary school program studied, with students of humanities and social sciences obtaining a level of cooperation 4 percent higher than those studying scientific technology. However, there were no important differences regarding the number of family members of the students (if they were only children or had more siblings) nor were there differences according to their geographical origins (if they were from rural or urban areas). In global terms, a 35 percent rate of cooperation was observed in the participants, which means that approximately one out of three students cooperated.

These results seem to confirm, according to the researchers, that the structure of the interaction network influences in a medium level of cooperation. That is, different levels of cooperation in the regular network have been observed in which all the users are connected with the same number of classmates/neighbors, and the heterogeneous, the so-called "scale-free" one, in which some persons are very connected (with many neighbors) and others very little. The researchers in charge of the experiment continue to extract data for more detailed analysis and with that will be able to obtain more results leading to in scientific journals publications.

Two types of tests

The experiment mainly consisted of two types of tests, each one made up of a different network. The first was a regular network, in which all the users were connected with the same number of schoolmates/neighbors. The second test used a heterogeneous network, the so-called "scale-free" types, in which some persons are very connected, that is, with many neighbors and others with very few. In both cases, the different behavior of the participants is compared when they always interact with the same neighbors, comparing that to what they do when after each interaction the structure of the population changes in a random way, and as such, with different neighbors.

If the hypothesis that the structure of the population determines the level of cooperation is true, different behavior will be observed when the neighbors are the same and when they change, and what is more, different levels of cooperation in the regular and heterogeneous network will be observed. If this is so, the hypothesis will be confirmed. On the contrary, the door will be left open to rule out the hypothesis, making it then be necessary to search for new alternatives to understand the main issue which is "the urgency of the cooperation".

This study has involved the participation of the following schools and institutes in Aragn. In the capital city of Zaragoza the following institutes participated: Goya, Pedro de Luna, Miralbueno, Ramn Pignatelli, Miguel Servet, Jernimo Zurita, Miguel Cataln, Jos Manuel Blecua, Andaln, Pablo Gargallo, Avempace, Francisco Grande Covin, Fundacin San Valero, Luis Buuel, Ramn y Cajal, Pablo Serrano and Azucarera, and the schools: Liceo Europa, Teresiano del Pilar, Sansuea, O.D Santo Domingo de Silos, Sagrado Corazn, Escuelas Pas, The British Institute of Aragon, San Alberto Magno, El Pilar Maristas and La Salle Gran Va. In other towns in the province the following institutes participated: Pirmide and Sierra de Guara in Huesca, Conde de Aranda in Alagn, Bajo Cinca in Fraga, Salvador Victoria in Monreal del Campo, Matarraa in Valderrobres, Zaurn in Ateca, Biello Aragn in Sabinigo, Gallicum in Zuera, Ro Arba in Tauste, Rodanas in pila, ngel Sanz Briz in Casetas, Valle de Jilocain Calamocha and Benjamn Jarns in Fuentes de Ebro and the school Santa Rosa-Altoaragn in Huesca.

The Aragon Government program Ciencia Viva also collaborated as the main organizer for all the participating public schools together with Hewlett Packard, Obra Social Ibercaja, the Zaragoza Municipal Government, El Corte Ingles Cultural Area and the Aragon Government as sponsors of the event.

###


[ Back to EurekAlert! ] [ | E-mail | Share Share ]

?


AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.


Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-12/ciuo-uci123011.php

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Friday, December 30, 2011

Samoans drop Friday from this year's calendar

Rachel Maddow reports on a peculiar switch in the calendar for Samoa as they move to the other side of the International Date Line and lose a Friday in order to be better aligned with their trading partners.

By Alan Boyle

Just this once, Samoa is making Dec. 30 disappear.

It's the key step in the Pacific island nation's plan to move from the?eastern to the western side of the International Date Line and mesh its work week with two of its primary trading partners, New Zealand and Australia. The New Zealand territory of Tokelau is making the switch as well.


"In doing business with New Zealand and Australia, we're losing out on two working days a week," Stuff.co.nz quoted Samoan Prime Minister Tuila'epa Sailele as saying. "While it's Friday here, it's Saturday in New Zealand, and when we're at church Sunday, they're already conducting business in Sydney and Brisbane."

Samoa will go directly from 11:59 p.m. Thursday, through midnight to 12:01 a.m. Saturday.

"It hasn't been controversial," the editor of the Samoa Observer, Mata'afa Lesa, told me today. (Yes, definitely still today.) "People are realizing?when they sleep tomorrow night, they'll wake up on Saturday."

Hotel guests won't have to pay for an extra night, but employers will?be required?to pay workers for Friday. "For the business community, it's very difficult," Lesa said, "They'll be paying for a day that doesn't exist."

As for folks born on Dec. 30 ... well, this year they're in the same boat as Feb. 29 birthday babies.

MSNBC

Samoa is on the eastern side of the International Date Line ... until Thursday night.

American Samoa, 100 miles to the east,?will not be making the switch. All this means that Samoa and Tokelau will be?among the first places in the?world?to see each day's sunrise. (Stuff.co.nz says the "first light honors" will belong to Fakaofo?in Tokelau, although Kiribati and Antarctica also have claims on the title.) Meanwhile, American Samoa will become known as the last?place to see each day's sunset. And if you want to celebrate your birthday or anniversary (or New Year's Eve, for that matter) two days in a row, you can just make the hourlong flight from Samoa to American Samoa.

This isn't the first step taken by the Samoan government to bring itself more in line with its bigger Pacific neighbors. Two years ago, drivers were ordered to switch from right-side to left-side?driving ? to reduce the cost of converting cars brought in from Australia and New Zealand.

It's also not the first time Samoa has switched sides on the calendar: Back in 1892, Samoans gained an extra day when?they?went from the west side of the imaginary Date Line to the east side. The king made the switch to please U.S. traders ??and to celebrate, he gave his subjects a double dose of the Fourth of July that year.


Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.?

Source: http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/28/9772352-samoa-drops-friday-from-calendar

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New Mexico Statehood to be Honored on Forever Stamp

?

A ceremony will be held for the First-Day-of-Issue New Mexico Statehood Forever Stamp on Friday, January 6, 2012 at the New Mexico History Museum Auditorium in Santa Fe, New Mexico.

Special guests include Governor Susana Martinez, Board of Governors Mickey Barnett of the U.S. Postal Service, and more.

The U.S. Postal Service honors the 100 years that have passed since January 6, 1912, when New Mexico became the 47th state in the union.

Today, New Mexico is the fifth-largest state in the U.S., known for its rich history, vibrant cultures, and stunning geographic diversity.

Art Director, Richard Sheaff selected an existing oil painting for the stamp art created by New Mexico resident and artist, Doug West.

Forever stamps are always equal in value to the current First-Class Mail one-ounce rate.

Source: http://neheights.kob.com/news/arts-culture/104908-new-mexico-statehood-be-honored-forever-stamp

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Thursday, December 29, 2011

Economic Cycles and Investing | The Big Picture

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

3 Responses to ?Economic Cycles and Investing?

  1. KJMClark Says:

    Now you need one for long (demographic) waves. As in, Generation A grows up during a crash, saves strongly, creates conditions for growth. Generation B thinks their parents are foolish Scrooges, spends, increasing growth but building up debt. Generation C sees grows up during debt-fueled growth, enjoys the good times, but then has to deal with the crash. Repeat.

  2. B_Lev Says:

    A number of the cycle charts show ?rising inflation? as a characteristic of an economy slowing/ entering a recession. At the same time, the charts suggest stocks and commodity prices start falling. Is this contradiction apparent?

    Why are prices increasing during a recession when (presumably) velocity slows? Outside of the 70?s stagflation or Volcker ?ringing out? inflation by inducing a recession (contractionary monetary) in the early 80?s, why would we associate a recession with increasing prices? Text Book. Inflation is expansionary. Right?

    Gen C! woop!

  3. orvil tootenbacher Says:

    nice qualitative charts. do they stand up to actual market data? if so, let?s see it.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Source: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/economic-cycles-and-investing/

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NCAA Skiing: Two CU national champs, one pair of skis

When University of Colorado student Reid Pletcher crossed the finish line first in the men`s 20K classical at the NCAA Skiing Championships in Stowe, Vt., last week, it was the second time that day that a Buff raced those skis to a win.

Earlier, Eliska Hajkova won a sprint to finish first in the women`s 15K classical on the same skis. She didn`t know it until she greeted him at the finish line of his race.

"When we hugged each other, I was like, 'Did you have good skis?'" Hajkova said. "And he said, 'I have your skis!'"

(Actually, they`re team skis. "We were thinking, when we retire them, we`ll have them both sign them and put them on the wall," said Bruce Cranmer, head Nordic coach for the team.)

Hajkova and Pletcher are the 82nd and 83rd skiers to win individual NCAA titles for the ski team -- a legacy that goes back to 1959, when alpine skier Dave Butts brought home two championships for the school. It won four individual titles the next year, a feat students repeated in 1963, 2006 and 2008.

The CU ski team thus leads the nation in total individual NCAA champions; University of Denver follows, with 79.

"We`ve got a good group that push each other in training," Cranmer said. "Our focus has always been to try to win, and certainly some of this goes towards recruiting -- I basically go after the best I can find."

'Psychologically stronger`

Hajkova was almost a runner, not a skier. Her father, who ran hurdles, pressured her to race as a runner at a young age, but it stressed her out. One day at a race, when she heard the pistol, she turned and ran the other way.

"In the period I didn`t race, I was a Girl Scout, and it was just girls all the time; it was boring," Hajkova said with a laugh. "And my mom helped me find a sport that was girls and boys together, and the only thing was cross-country skiing."

Fortunately, Hajkova lived in Jablonec nad Nisou, one of the best places for Nordic skiing in the Czech Republic.

Now, she`s "one of the more fierce, hard-core competitors out there," Pletcher said.

In her classical race at the collegiate nationals, in pouring rain ("When I kicked, I felt the water between my toes in my boots," she said), she knew that it was a race of tactics -- especially against her frequent rival from Utah, Maria Graefnings.

"I wanted to be psychologically stronger," Hajkova said.

Graefnings attacked three times, she said, but she waited for the final hill and the sprint finish. And won.

Cranmer said it was a finish he`d waited all season to see.

The sprinters, at distance

Hajkova and Pletcher had shared skis before last week -- they swapped at the U.S. nationals, too. There, Hajkova was lined up at the start of that race with no skis, making jokes about running rather than skiing, waiting for Pletcher to finish.

Cranmer said Pletcher didn`t have a pair of no-wax skis -- what the conditions called for last Friday in Stowe -- and that he and Hajkova are similar in size and have similar styles. Though they won distance events, both are sprinters.

Pletcher grew up skiing in Sun Valley, Idaho, with his family. Despite skiing strong for the past two years at CU, this was his first chance to go to the championships.

"He was one of the top skiers from our region, but because we had so many good skiers -- I mean, he would have been the top skier for a lot of schools," Cranmer said.

"It breaks your heart when you`re not taking the guy ranked No. 4 in the region."

This year, finally there, he got a rocky start.

"The first race didn`t go well; I got 23rd," Pletcher said of his skate race. "So I didn`t know if I could pull it off, but turned it around for the classic race. I felt way better."

Cranmer said Pletcher recovered well.

"He kind of relaxed and thought about the racing," Cranmer said. "And I encouraged him to take care of the details and don`t worry about the big picture, it`ll take care of itself."

It did. In his classical race, he became only the third American to win an NCAA classical championship. But Pletcher talked about wanting to help the team, and wanting to race for Spencer Nelson, a teammate who died in a climbing accident last summer. (The ski team dedicated its season to him.)

"When I`m skiing for a team, I put a lot of pressure on myself because it`s a lot harder letting the team down than it is letting myself down," he said.

"Skiing, it`s a really close-knit community," Pletcher said. "You know everyone, there`s really good people to hang around with.

"And to be honest, it`s one of the most bad-ass sports."

Source: http://www.coloradodaily.com/ci_17632152?source=rss_viewed

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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Greece: Top prosecutor probes Turkey-arson claim (AP)

ATHENS, Greece ? Greece's top prosecutor on Tuesday ordered an emergency inquiry into a Turkish newspaper report that Turkish government-funded agents set forest fires in Greece in the mid-1990s.

The Birgun newspaper quoted former Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz as making the allegations. But Yilmaz said he had been misquoted and that the allegations were untrue.

Greece's Supreme Court prosecutor Yiannis Tentes launched an emergency inquiry, ordering investigations reopened into mid-1990s wildfires blamed on arson, while the Foreign Ministry said it was seeking an official response from Ankara.

"Information that has been published and attributed to former prime minister of Turkey Mr. Yilmaz by the Turkish press is serious and should be investigated," Greek ministry spokesman Gregory Delavekouras said in a statement. "The Greek side expects to be informed by the authorities of Turkey."

Tensions between traditional rivals Greece and Turkey were running high at the time referred to in the newspaper report, with the two countries coming to the brink of war in 1996 over disputed sovereignty of a tiny island in the Aegean Sea. The two NATO allies have since improved ties.

Yilmaz, who served as Turkey's prime minister three times during the 1990s, was quoted by the newspaper as saying he had not been briefed by his predecessor in office, Tansu Ciller, on covert state-funded operations that included a "forest retaliation against Greece."

He later told reporters he had been misquoted and had been referring to unsubstantiated reports of Greek involvement in Turkish forest fires.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/asia/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111227/ap_on_re_eu/eu_turkey_greece

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RT @dzIQ990: Tension in Imus town hall as newly-declared Mayor Manny Malicsi tri...

Sorry, Readability was unable to parse this page for content.

Source: http://www.facebook.com/inquirerdotnet/posts/10150565531169453

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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

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Growing independence among college voters could shift dynamic of 2012 election

Fewer voters across the country are choosing to register as democrats or republicans, a trend that some college students attribute to increasingly polarized political rhetoric and voter alienation from a two party political system.

A USA TODAY analysis of state voter registration statistics found that 2.5 million voters have left the Democratic and Republican party since 2008. The number of Democrats fell in 25 of the 28 states that register voters by party, while the number of Republicans fell in 21 states.

The analysis also showed that the number of independent voters increased in 18 states.

Frustration among college students marks a significant shift from 2008, when the Obama campaign recruited a record number of young people to get involved in the election. A sense of estrangement among college students coupled with reluctance to get politically involved could significantly shift the dynamic of the 2012 election.

David Rice, a sophomore at Dartmouth College, speculated that while college students were frustrated with their government, but it was for different reasons than those of most Americans. Since college students can depend on their parents for healthcare, housing, and food, Rice said, they have different political concerns than other Americans.

?It?s an entirely different lifestyle than the one that most Americans live,? Rice said. ?And while there are issues and stresses in the average college student?s life. They are incredibly different than the issues and stresses of the average Americans?.?

Zach Goldaber, a sophomore at the University of Chicago, said that he thought that demonstrations on college campuses across the country this fall clearly showed student frustration.

?You only have to look at the protests at UC Davis, UC Berkeley, or at Occupy Boston to see that a huge number of college students are very upset with what they perceive to be the political status quo,? Goldaber said. ?I feel like more and more people are becoming politically active, but aren?t finding the answers they?re looking for in the Democratic and Republican parties.?

The decline in democratic and republican affiliation is paramount in swing states that could significantly impact the 2012 election. In the eight swing states that register voters by party, Democratic and Republican registration has dropped, while the number of registered independent voters has increased, according to the USA TODAY analysis.

?I think that more and more people are feeling disenfranchised by the two party system,? said Daniel Goulden, a sophomore at Brandeis University. ?There are very few politicians who I feel are honest.?

You might also be interested in:

  1. Election 2012: What role will religion play in the GOP nomination?
  2. Young voters in south Texas say Gov. Perry has ignored them
  3. Without Chris Christie, young voters ambivalent toward GOP field
  4. Election 2012: From the classroom to the campaign
  5. Date shift impacts student participation in Iowa caucus

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of USA TODAY.

Source: http://www.usatodayeducate.com/staging/index.php/election2012/growing-independence-among-college-voters-could-shift-dynamic-of-2012-election

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Monday, December 26, 2011

Japan urges China to help keep North Korea in check (Reuters)

BEIJING (Reuters) ? Japan urged China on Monday to shoulder a big role in ensuring North Korea avoids volatility after the death of its leader, Kim Jong-il.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda also urged Chinese President Hu Jintao to share information about developments in North Korea, where the succession of Kim's youngest son, Kim Jong-un, has fanned speculation about who will really control the secretive one-party state and its nuclear program.

"It is important that we will not let the death of the chairman of the National Defense Commission Kim have a negative impact on the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula," Noda was quoted by a Japanese official as telling Hu while on a visit to in Beijing.

Kim Jong-il's many positions included head of the important military commission.

"Under these circumstance, the role of China, which is the chair country of the six-party talks and has a big influence on North Korea, is extremely important," said Noda, according to the official who briefed reporters but declined to be identified.

The so-called six-party talks involve the two Koreas, China, Japan, the United States and Russia and are aimed at getting North Korea to give up its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

The Japanese prime minister is the first regional leader to visit China since Kim Jong-il's death was announced a week ago.

China is the North's only major ally and the North has long relied on China for diplomatic and economic support.

Chinese state news agency Xinhua said Hu told Noda that it was in the interests of all sides to maintain stability on the Korean peninsula.

"China is ready to make joint efforts with all relevant parties, including Japan, to maintain peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and to achieve lasting peace, security and order on the peninsula and (in) northeast Asia," Xinhua cited Hu as saying.

Noda urged China to be forthcoming about what it learned about the North's transition.

"I would like vigorous information sharing between Japan and China, and intend to address the situation calmly and properly," the Japanese official cited Noda as telling Hu on the second and final day of his visit.

North Korea has alarmed the region with two plutonium-based nuclear test blasts, a succession of military altercations, and declarations that it was developing uranium enrichment, which could open another path to assembling atomic weapons.

Constraining North Korea is especially important for Japan, which is within range of the North's missiles and wants it to resolve the issue of the fate of Japanese citizens kidnapped and taken to North Korea to help train spies decades ago.

But China is wary about upsetting North Korea, especially during a delicate transition, and has restricted its public comments about the implications of Kim's death to broad calls for stability and calm.

"Both sides agreed that preserving the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula serves the interests of all sides," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in its account of talks on Sunday between Noda and Premier Wen Jiabao.

(Additional reporting by Chris Buckley and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Robert Birsel)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/japan/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111226/wl_nm/us_china_japan_korea

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Thousands attend funerals for Syrian bomb victims

Mourners pray at a mass funeral Saturday, Dec. 24, 2011 for 44 people killed in twin suicide bombings that targeted intelligence agency compounds in Damascus, Syria. Mourners carried coffins draped in the red, white and black Syrian flags into the eighth-century Omayyad Mosque, where they were placed on the ground for prayers. (AP Photo/Muzaffar Salman)

Mourners pray at a mass funeral Saturday, Dec. 24, 2011 for 44 people killed in twin suicide bombings that targeted intelligence agency compounds in Damascus, Syria. Mourners carried coffins draped in the red, white and black Syrian flags into the eighth-century Omayyad Mosque, where they were placed on the ground for prayers. (AP Photo/Muzaffar Salman)

Mourners wave Syrian flags and a photo of President Bashar Assad as they chant slogans at a mass funeral Saturday, Dec. 24, 2011 for 44 people killed in twin suicide bombings that targeted intelligence agency compounds in Damascus, Syria. Mourners carried coffins draped in the red, white and black Syrian flags into the eighth-century Omayyad Mosque, where they were placed on the ground for prayers. (AP Photo/Muzaffar Salman)

Mourners wave Syrian flags at a mass funeral Saturday, Dec. 24, 2011 for 44 people killed in twin suicide bombings that targeted intelligence agency compounds in Damascus, Syria. Mourners carried coffins draped in the red, white and black Syrian flags into the eighth-century Omayyad Mosque, where they were placed on the ground for prayers. (AP Photo/Muzaffar Salman)

Mourners bow in prayer at a mass funeral Saturday, Dec. 24, 2011 for 44 people killed in twin suicide bombings that targeted intelligence agency compounds in Damascus, Syria. Mourners carried coffins draped in the red, white and black Syrian flags into the eighth-century Omayyad Mosque, where they were placed on the ground for prayers. (AP Photo/Muzaffar Salman)

(AP) ? Thousands of mourners carrying Syrian flags and pictures of the dead took part in a mass funeral Saturday for 44 people killed in twin suicide bombings that targeted intelligence agency compounds in Damascus.

The government of President Bashar Assad said a preliminary investigation pointed to al-Qaida and that the bloodshed and destruction in the capital bolstered its argument that terrorists, rather than true reform-seekers, were behind the anti-government revolt.

The opposition, meanwhile, grew fearful that the regime was taking advantage of the distraction caused by the bombings to move in military reinforcements and prepare for a massive assault on key activist areas in central Syria. Shelling in the city of Homs on Saturday killed at least three people in the Baba Amr district and set several homes and shops ablaze, activists said.

"We believe this is in preparation for a large-scale attack," said Bassam Ishak, secretary-general of the Syrian National Council opposition group.

In Damascus, mourners carried coffins draped in the red, white and black Syrian flags into the eighth-century Omayyad Mosque, where they were placed on the ground for prayers.

"Martyr after martyr, we want nobody but Assad," they shouted in support of the embattled Syrian president.

The government linked Friday's bombings to the uprising against Assad's autocratic rule. They were the first suicide bombings since the unrest began in mid-March, adding new and ominous dimensions to a conflict that has already brought the country to the brink of civil war.

Striking just moments apart, the attackers used powerful car bombs to target the heavily guarded compounds. The explosions shook the capital, which has been relatively untouched by the uprising, and left mutilated and torn bodies amid rubble, twisted debris and burned cars.

Besides the dead, 166 people were wounded.

The opposition has questioned the government's account and hinted the regime itself could have been behind the attacks, noting they came a day after the arrival of an advance team of Arab League observers investigating Assad's bloody crackdown of the popular revolt.

Ishak said he feared the bombings "were orchestrated to distract attention from a massive assault today in Homs."

He said his group reported the information they got from Homs to the Arab League and urged the monitors to head to Homs. "The regime is keeping them in their hotels and delaying their departure for Homs," he told The Associated Press on the phone from Amman, Jordan.

An Arab League statement from its Cairo headquarters on Saturday said Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby condemned the attacks in Damascus but also expressed particular concern for Homs.

"The secretary-general expresses concern over reports that violent acts are on the rise in Homs city and calls for an immediate cessation of such acts," the statement said, warning that the violence will affect the success of the fuller observer mission set to arrive in Damascus Monday.

The government has long contended that the turmoil in Syria this year is not an uprising by reform-seekers but the work of terrorists and foreign-backed armed gangs.

Sheik Said al-Bouti, a prominent pro-Assad clergyman in Damascus, blamed the opposition squarely for the attacks.

"This gift has been sent to us by Burhan Ghalioun and his friends," he said in his funeral sermon Saturday, referring to the head of the Paris-based Syrian National Council.

Women dressed in black wailed Saturday during the funeral procession, which was aired by state-run Syrian TV. Some blamed the emir of Qatar, seen by supporters of Assad as leading the campaign against the regime.

"Those terrorists are funded by the emir of Qatar to kill innocent people, but they won't succeed," cried Fawakeh Shaqiri, 56, who was dressed in black and carrying a Syrian flag.

All the coffins Saturday held the names of the bombing victims, except for six coffins carrying the remains of people who had not been identified.

Syrian officials said a suicide attacker detonated his explosives-laden car as he waited behind a vehicle driven by a retired general who was trying to enter a military intelligence building in Damascus' upscale Kfar Sousa district Friday morning. About a minute later, a second attacker blew up his SUV at the gate of the General Intelligence Agency, the officials said.

Government officials took the Arab League observers to the scene of the explosions and said it supported their accounts of who was behind the violence.

"I wonder, have the covers been removed from the eyes of the Arab League representatives so that they can see who is the real killer and who is the victim?" al-Bouti asked.

The United Nations says more than 5,000 people have been killed since March, when the uprising began and the regime responded by deploying tanks and troops to crush protests across Syria.

In addition to the deaths in Baba Amr Saturday, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the bodies of four people were found dumped on the streets in Houla, also in Homs province. They showed signs of torture on their bodies, it said.

A fifth person was still alive but in critical condition, according to the group.

They had been detained a day earlier by security forces and pro-government thugs.

"The Observatory calls on the Arab League observers to go immediately to the city of Houla to document this flagrant violation of human rights," the group said in a statement.

___

Karam reported from Beirut. AP writer Dale Gavlak in Amman, Jordan, contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2011-12-24-ML-Syria/id-9216484d6ae8437d82fda6adea39dc91

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Sunday, December 25, 2011

Japan concerned about India's nuke plants

Published: Dec. 23, 2011 at 3:57 PM

NEW DELHI, Dec. 23 (UPI) -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is to visit India next week with nuclear energy issues reportedly on the agenda.

Noda is to meet with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during the Sixth Annual Summit between Japanese and Indian leaders.

Unidentified Indian diplomatic sources stated that New Delhi believes that Noda will voice concerns over the safety of Indian nuclear power plants during his visit, The Pioneer newspaper reported Friday.

"Safety of nuclear installations assumes maximum importance after the nuclear accident in Japan and it would be taken up," a source said. "The talks about enhancing the nuclear cooperation between the two countries would form the part of discussions between the two leaders."

Japan's ruling Democratic Party is promoting nuclear technology exports as a pillar of its economic growth strategy. Nine months after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident Japan is reviving policies that it hopes will lead to exports of commercial nuclear technology to counties like India and Vietnam even as Japan scales back the domestic use of nuclear energy.

Source: http://pheed.upi.com/click.phdo?i=0bb971ee41dd5ff4369e2e2e559ffa2b

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Engadget Podcast 269 - 12.23.2011

It may be Christmas Eve Eve and the fourth day of Hannukah, but so far, this has felt like just another week in the consumer electronics biz. Another loco crazy, pre-CES, sink-or-swim, walk-a-dozen-miles-to-charge-your-cell kind of week. But that doesn't mean we don't have a couple of nice presents for you...including, of course, your very own Engadget Podcast.

Host: Brian Heater, Tim Stevens
Producer: Trent Wolbe
Music: Just a Dream

01:37 - Engadget Distro now available on Android Market and iOS Newsstand!
04:46 - AT&T abandons T-Mobile merger plans (updated)
11:02 - Sony PlayStation Vita review (Japanese edition)
24:38 - Microsoft's CES 2012 keynote won't deliver 'significant news,' more of 'a wrap-up'
32:09 - SOPA hearing delayed until the new year as petition signatures top 25k
35:47 - T-Mobile, Motorola respond to Senator Franken's Carrier IQ questions
37:20 - Two days in the desert with Apple's lost founder, Ron Wayne
41:55 - Fusion Garage's website goes dark -- has it bitten the dust? (update: it's back?)
45:00 - The Engadget Interview: Fusion Garage's Chandra Rathakrishnan... post-fallout
50:02 - Indian villagers walk a dozen miles to charge cellphones
53:14 - Listener questions












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Engadget Podcast 269 - 12.23.2011 originally appeared on Engadget on Fri, 23 Dec 2011 11:41:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Source: http://www.engadget.com/2011/12/23/engadget-podcast-269-12-23-2011/

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Saturday, December 24, 2011

Video: Hardball?s top movies of the year

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Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/vp/45780148#45780148

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Omada Health Raises $850K From Esther Dyson & More To Take On Diabetes

OmadaHealth_LogoOmada Health, a graduate of Rock Health's first batch of startups, is announcing today that it has raised $800K in seed funding from a number of angel and venture investors, including Esther Dyson, NEA, Aberdare, Kapor Capital, and TriplePoint Ventures to name a few. Omada Health, simply put, has turned its focus to one of the most pervasive diseases in the country: Diabetes. Well, really, prediabetes. The CDC estimates that 79 million people in the U.S. currently have prediabetes -- said another way, that's approximately 1 in 3 adults. And the majority of those people are not aware of their condition, which essentially means that they are suffering from blood glucose levels that are not irregular enough to be considered diabetes, yet still indicate an extremely high risk of progressing to full-blown diabetes.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/0eIsHYweMyw/

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Friday, December 23, 2011

willettjf: Google/Android versus Amazon/Android ?@parislemon: The Other Side Of Open http://t.co/597ZQ602?

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Israel in the midst of the Arab winter

Israel in the midst of the Arab winter
By Victor Kotsev

With Egypt slowly descending into chaos and Syria in a state of a civil war, many analysts fear that the Arab Spring may be turning into a bitter Arab winter. It will likely take years to comprehend the full extent of the changes that are happening, and the basic status quo in the region stands to be transformed significantly. The two conflicts that currently loom over every other issue in the Middle East, the Israeli-Arab conflict and the Iran standoff, also stand to be transformed, whether by exploding into violence, by falling out of fashion, or in some other way.

In the middle of all this sits Israel, one of the main regional powers in the Middle East, as well as, right now, one of the most stable economies in the world (a dubious honor, given its size and dependence on trade links and foreign aid). Many eyes are set on it: the decisions that its leaders must make in the next year, for example whether to attack Iran or what, if any, concessions to

?
make to the Palestinians, can alter the course of events in the entire region, and perhaps in the entire world.

At the same time, and in contrast with this formidable reputation which they enjoy, the Israeli leaders are just as anxious about the future (we can infer this much from their statements and from leaks in the Israeli media). Although they recognize that the lack of representative democracy among their neighbors is a major impediment to a stable and comprehensive peace agreement, they are suspicious of anything coming from the Arabs.

So is the majority of the Israeli public - in this way, at least, the Benjamin Netanyahu government is entirely representative of its constituency. Growing numbers of Israelis have stopped believing that an end to the conflict is possible in their lifetimes.

"It is not a question of if there will be a war," a 24-year-old friend of mine in Tel Aviv likes to say. "It is a question of when." Sometimes, she adds with just a touch of bitterness in her voice a sentence along the lines of: "My children will be fighting the same war, and their children, too."

That belief is largely motivated by history. War has been a constant companion of modern Israeli history since the fateful day, May 14, 1948, when David Ben Gurion declared Israeli independence. The very next day the Arab armies invaded. The war was bloody and lasted almost a year; Israel surprised most international observers by winning, though in retrospect careful military analysis has shown that after a certain point fairly early in the conflict, the Israeli victory was all but guaranteed.

The influential American think-tank Stratfor describes the geostrategic situation of Israel in the following way:

The exterior lines of Israel's neighbors prevented effective, concerted action. Israel's interior lines permitted efficient deployment and redeployment of force. It was not obvious at the time [1948], but in retrospect we can see that once Israel existed, was united and had even limited military force, its survival was guaranteed. That is, so long as no great power was opposed to its existence.

... The conquests of Israel occur when powers not adjacent to it begin forming empires. Babylon, Persia, Macedonia, Rome, Turkey and Britain all controlled Israel politically, sometimes for worse and sometimes for better. Each dominated it militarily, but none was a neighbor of Israel. This is a consistent pattern. Israel can resist its neighbors; danger arises when more distant powers begin playing imperial games. Empires can bring force to bear that Israel cannot resist.

Israel therefore has this problem: It would be secure if it could confine itself to protecting its interests from neighbors, but it cannot confine itself because its geographic location invariably draws larger, more distant powers toward Israel. Therefore, while Israel's military can focus only on immediate interests, its diplomatic interests must look much further. Israel is constantly entangled with global interests (as the globe is defined at any point), seeking to deflect and align with broader global powers. When it fails in this diplomacy, the consequences can be catastrophic. [1]

This is an apt summary not only of Israel's ancient history, but of the last six decades as well. The new country did not become a regional hegemon immediately; several major regional wars followed the one in 1948-1949. The Six-Day War in 1967 was by far the most spectacular demonstration of Israeli ingenuity, courage, meticulous preparation, superb intelligence and full utilization of the element of surprise - qualities and tactics that have since become the hallmark of the Israeli military doctrine. At the end of that war, Israel occupied the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Peninsula and much of the Golan Heights. In military terms, that meant securing a certain amount of strategic depth, though also spreading out forces and stretching supply lines across greater distances.

The October War in 1973 - known in Israel as the Yom Kippur War - saw several dramatic reverses. The Egyptians launched it with a surprise attack across the Suez Canal, overwhelming the Israeli defenses. The Syrians followed suit. Recently declassified records reveal unmitigated panic at the highest levels of the Israeli government in the first days of the war. The following excerpt from a conversation between Golda Meir, the Israeli prime minister at the time, and Moshe Dayan, a legendary hero of the 1967 war and Meir's defense minister, is particularly revealing:

Golda Meir: "They have no reason not to continue. They smelled blood."

Moshe Dayan: "To conquer Israel, finish off the Jews." [2]

The Israeli army eventually pulled itself together and won the war - though not without the help of a massive weapons air lift from the United States, the new superpower ally the Jewish State had acquired in 1967. Rumor has it that the Israelis threatened to nuke the Arabs in order to secure American generosity, but neither party will comment - in any case, Israel sticks to an official policy of ambiguity on any topic related to its nuclear program.

The war in 1973 was the last big regional war, at least for several decades to come, and was arguably a major turning point for both sides. Up until that moment, the Arabs had never given up the hope of wiping the Jewish state off the map; they had rejected practically every Israeli effort to negotiate, as demonstrated by the famous three "nos" of the Khartoum summit of the Arab League following the 1967 war: no to peace, no to recognition, and no to negotiations.

However, just as the Arabs were finally shaken in their confidence in 1973 (and forced to realize that Israel was there to stay), so too were the Israelis. They had started to rely too heavily on their military prowess, which had in part enabled the Egyptians to surprise them. More importantly, they were shocked to see how quickly their enemies could recover from the 1967 rout with aid from the USSR, the rival superpower of the US in the Cold War which was raging at the time. The Soviets had generously supplied the Egyptians and the Syrians with equipment, military doctrines, and even instructors to help train their armies.

Gradually, the Israelis began to understand that, when heavily outnumbered and surrounded by what they perceived as a "sea" of close to 300 million Arabs, no victory was conclusive, and a single defeat could mean their end. This in turn fed into an earlier fear, the fear of the destruction of the Jewish people which had almost been realized three decades earlier during the Holocaust, and which the initial military exploits of the Jewish State had somewhat mitigated.

Arguably, these realizations also eroded the confidence that even a comprehensive peace treaty - something that traditionally would follow lopsided victories such as those that had been achieved - would guarantee Israeli security. The Israeli public became altogether disillusioned with the prospects for lasting peace.

Peace treaties remained highly desirable - not least due to the economic benefits and the generous American military aid they tend to entail - and Israel sealed a couple of deals, with Egypt and Jordan, in the decades following the Yom Kippur war. Still, just as the Arabs started to shift toward a position that welcomed negotiations, the Israelis started to pull back.

These shifts in Israeli attitude were not immediately noticeable after 1973; it took almost three decades, the apparent failure of the Oslo Accords in the 1990s and the Palestinian suicide terror of the Second Intifada in the early 2000s, for Israelis to become more or less apathetic to the peace process. The prominent Canadian-Israeli journalist and academic Bernard Avishai, an important figure in the Israeli peace movement, describes this poignantly. In a public lecture taped in October 2008, he relates his experience returning to Israel in 2002 after not living there since the 1970s.

I began to notice ... that no one used the term "peace process" any more. No one would talk about diplomatic initiatives, no one would look at the details of the peace process any more. And I as a journalist whose last year living in Israel was the year of the First Camp David Agreement in 1979 was a little mystified because in 1979 we used to do nothing but think about "if Sadat does x, will Dayan do y. If Carter does y, will ... Assad do z" ... and so on. We spent a lot of time agonizing, torturing ourselves over the likelihood of this or that diplomatic move, and this continued through to the 1990s and the Oslo peace process ... No one was talking about this any more. People were talking about "hamatzav" - "the situation." Hamatzav. And they spoke about the situation a little like the way alcoholics speak about being alcoholic. It's a condition that you manage, but you never expect, ever, for the rest of your existence, to cure? [3]
For Avishai and for other prominent Israeli peace activists, the cause of this apparent political apathy is internal rather than external: an unresolved conflict among Israelis.

Avishai speaks of a sizeable group of ideological Jewish hardliners, "for whom Jerusalem is the kind of anchor for a Jewish state like Iran is a Muslim state. They believe in theocracy, they want a theocracy. That kind of person is deeply threatened by the influx of Arabs. It's not a problem that they are coming to Old Israel, it's they are coming to Judea."

He calls them "Judeans", and contrasts them to the "Israelis". "The real question is: About 2/3 of Israel is Israeli. About 1/3 of Israel is Judean, and sort of concentrated around [Jerusalem and the settlements]. Are Israelis going to fight Judeans for the sake of Palestinians? ... These Israelis can make peace with the Palestinian state, but these Judeans cannot."

"Fight" is a strong word to use, perhaps, and the idea of a civil war between Israelis of different political persuasions seemed almost absurd right now. (This is despite the occasional act of vandalism by extreme right-wing settlers against the Israeli army or the occasional dirty diaper or rock thrown against the Israeli police by disgruntled ultra-Orthodox youth.) Yet even so, emigration is constantly perceived as an existential danger; besides, faced with so many enemies, Israel usually needs all the solidarity it could muster - anything less is understood as a jeopardy.

Consequently, Israelis are loath to take steps that could threaten their social consensus - particularly in exchange for uncertain returns. Most have adapted to the reality of war, and, like the inhabitants of other parts of the world plagued by intractable conflicts, have learned to seek a certain kind of normalcy or stability within that reality.

The Israeli government takes a similar approach, resisting fundamental changes in the status quo, trying to seal itself off from neighbors, and maneuvering to adapt to anything that happens in the region. There are many threats, including very recent ones: after the ouster of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak last February, for example, the Israeli defense establishment has felt compelled to dust off contingency plans for a possible collapse of the peace treaty in the future. The instability in Syria, which is threatening to bring down the hostile but predictable Syrian regime, adds suspense.

The crisis with Iran also looms. It is hard to believe that Israel would attack on its own, without at least tacit American consent and support. However, Israel's ability to surprise is well-known.

Many uncertainties remain. The Israeli economy is doing well, but a new recession in Europe and the US may reverse that in months, if not weeks. Given that thousands of missiles are pointed at Israel's small territory, a war could cause large-scale death and destruction.

Yet one need not see the future in dark colors only; a moment of crisis and uncertainty is also a moment of opportunity. It is also possible to imagine optimistic scenarios for the Middle East. On Tuesday, for example, a senior US official announced that the death of the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il had occurred just as a deal for the halting of the country's nuclear program was being finalized. [4] The statement is suspicious for its timing, but it does point to a creative way to influence Iran's thinking on the nuclear issue.

After all, North Korea provides not only advanced weapons and technology to Iran, but also a policy paradigm for a regime which has enjoyed security due to the possession of nuclear weapons. If (late Libyan leader) Muammar Gaddafi had not given up his nuclear program, an argument goes, he would still be alive and in power today. If, on the other hand, the North Korean regime gives way under pressure, that might affect the strategic calculus of the ayatollahs - and of other regimes in the region. If it balks, could we imagine a North Korean Spring next year?

Such a scenario, of course, is highly speculative. Realistically, as the Rolling Stones once sung, you can't always get what you want. But then again, you usually get at least some of what you want truly, at least some of the time.

Notes

1. The Geopolitics of Israel: Biblical and Modern, , Stratfor, May 14, 2011 (Subscription or registration required)
2. ?Dayan to Golda: If we can't evacuate, we'll leave wounded behind,? , Ynet, October 4, 2010
3. Program in Jewish Studies: Visiting Professor Lecture - Bernard Avishai (October 22, 2008), Accessed December 12, 2011
4. U.S. official: North Korea leader died just as deal was struck to halt nuclear program , Ha?aretz, December 20 2011

Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

Source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ML22Ak04.html

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