COMMENTARY | Newt Gingrich believes that the Republican race for the nomination to run for president would be better served if Texas governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum dropped out of the race. It's all about the need for conservative voters to rally behind a strong anti-Romney campaign before it is too late to stop the former Massachusetts governor from snow-balling in his efforts to capture the GOP nomination. The news is full of articles noting that the South Carolina primary is the last stand for many of the Republican contenders. Sen. Lindsay Graham and Rep. Tim Scott both said as much on NBC's "Meet The Press." But why should Perry and Santorum step aside? Why not the former Speaker himself? What makes him a better anti-Romney? And why didn't he mention Texas congressman Ron Paul?
According to CNN, a reporter asked the former Speaker if he thought Santorum should drop out of the presidential race. "So I am respectful that Rick has every right to run as long as he feels that's what he should do," Gingrich replied at a town hall meeting in Florence, "but from the stand point of the conservative movement, consolidating into a Gingrich candidacy would in fact virtually guarantee a victory on Saturday. And I'd be delighted if either Perry or Santorum wanted to do that."
And he is correct. If those Republican voters that currently are backing Perry and Santorum -- should they decide to bow to Gingrich's idea of the greater Republican good (or at least his version of it) -- and all consolidated to vote for the former Speaker, he would gain, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, 21 percent (16 percent from Santorum, 5 percent from Perry) more support and actually lead Mitt Romney, who has a total of 35 percent, by a total of 7 percentage points. According to the poll, Gingrich trailed Romney by 14 percentage points.
But people -- individual voters -- generally do not move as a cohesive collective.
"I think I'm the only conservative, if you look at the polling, I am the only conservative who realistically has a chance to be the nominee," Gingrich said at the town hall meeting. "So any vote toward Perry or Santorum in effect is a vote to allow Romney to become the nominee. Because we have got to bring conservatives together."
In his efforts to convince voters to consolidate, Gingrich pushes to divide the pro-Romney vote from the anti-Romney vote. He also inflates his own conservative worth. Looking at those polls he suggests the general "you" to do, he is not the "only conservative who realistically has a chance to be the nominee." Romney has the best shot, because he leads the national presidential preference polls, including the latest from Fox News (by 25 percent -- 40 percent total). Rick Santorum actually leads Gingrich in that particular poll, although her trails or ties the former Speaker in others. And Rep. Paul is within the margin of error of being second, nipping at both competitors second-place total with 13 percent support.
Of course, as with most things associated with Gingrich, a self-styled man of words, it comes down to what a voter might consider "conservative." Romney has been attacked as being too liberal. Paul has been accused of being unrealistic and too libertarian. Santorum has had to defend himself against non-conservative legislation -- like earmarks and profligate budgetary spending -- while a senator.
Still, Gingrich, no matter how you parse the degrees of conservatism reflected in each of the candidates, is a far cry from being the "only" conservative nominee that could win the nomination.
And what about Ron Paul? Why doesn't Gingrich suggest Rep. Paul withdraw from the race?
For starters, Paul would never acquiesce to such a suggestion by Gingrich. According to Paul's political ads, he finds Gingrich among the worst of the faux conservatives and a "serial hypocrite" as well. If Paul's supporters follow the lead of the congressman, they would never support Gingrich anyway, even if Paul were to withdraw from the race.
Gingrich has made mention that a poor showing in South Carolina would cause him to consider leaving the race. He finished fourth in the Iowa Caucuses and fifth in New Hampshire. He currently holds second place in South Carolina Primary polling (according to Real Clear Politics).
As Santorum pointed out when apprised of Gingrich's remarks about his dropping out, he was "hurting" the former Speaker: "... the idea that someone who is 0 and 2 in races is that I am hurting him. Yeah I'm hurting him. I'm beating him. That's the difference."
And it is that difference that Gingrich is attempting to convert and hopefully consolidate against frontrunner Romney. Along with some Perry supporters.
But couldn't Santorum make the same argument with Gingrich and Perry?
A conference of evangelical leaders in Texas this past weekend (per the Christian Post) agreed with Gingrich that a united anti-Romney front was needed. They endorsed former senator Rick Santorum.
A consolidation of Republican voters that currently back the latter two candidates would given Santorum a narrow 37-35 lead (using Rasmussen Reports totals) over Romney.
On that note, Santorum would probably be delighted if Gingrich and Perry dropped out of the race.
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